Bob Mcdonnell

Virginia Governor – Election 2009

Bob McDonnell’s Winning Strategy
Winning the Suburbs and Turning Out the Base

On November 3, 2009, Bob McDonnell won the Virginia governor’s race with nearly 59% of the vote – the biggest margin in a Virginia governor’s race in more than 40 years. This landslide win is even more remarkable when you consider that the campaign’s internal polling had this race essentially tied through September. While the national environment benefited the McDonnell effort, the disciplined and smart campaign he waged must certainly be credited with the lopsided margin of victory.

Creative Direct worked with the campaign to develop a winning voter contact direct mail strategy focusing on:

1) Winning the suburban vote
2) Firing up the base to get them to the polls

Direct mail was a critical element in Bob McDonnell’s winning strategy. Nearly 10% of the campaign budget was spent on more than 110 different targeted mailings.

More than 12 months before the election, Creative Direct began working on the voter contact direct mail plan. In coordination with the McDonnell campaign, Blaise Hazelwood at Grassroots Targeting, and Bill Steiner at the Republican National Committee we developed a comprehensive statewide microtargeting program to update the voter file. This microtargeting project allowed the campaign to spend money more efficiently and target its message with more accuracy.

TARGETING SUBURBAN SWING VOTERS

More than 75% of the $2.3 million direct mail budget was spent on mail targeting suburban swing voters, with most of this going to Northern Virginia. The first mailings to Northern Virginia were sent in June, introducing Bob McDonnell as someone who was from the suburbs who understands everyday issues of concern to suburban voters. The second phase began after Labor Day and went through Election Day.

Each of the McDonnell mailings were detailed, specific and focused on issues important to the target audience – whether it was broad issues like the economy and education or more localized like Lyme disease or transferring Gitmo prisoners to Alexandria. The campaign also focused on four ethnic groups – Koreans, Filipinos, Vietnamese and African-Americans - sending targeted mailings to each.

RESPONDING TO THE DEEDS SOCIAL ISSUES ATTACKS

Creigh Deed’s strategy was to portray Bob McDonnell as a right-wing “culture warrior” who will use his office to implement an extreme social agenda from banning abortion to cutting funding for mammograms. When the Washington Post unearthed McDonnell’s graduate school thesis from Pat Robertson’s Regent University, the Deeds campaign pounced. On television and in the mail, Deeds attacked Bob McDonnell on social issues. Bob McDonnell’s response mailings were targeted to the voters who were most susceptible to Deed’s attacks – moderate suburban women. These mailings stressed his values as a father of three strong professional women and his record as Attorney General. These mailings also exposed Deeds as a candidate without a plan for Virginia’s future.

TURNING OUT THE GOP BASE

The Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) effort began more than a month before Election Day with the absentee ballot mail program. Those Republicans who were less likely to turnout received extra attention in the form of additional mailings, phone calls and personal door-to-door contact. Those Republicans most likely to vote, actually received no mail from the campaign. Like the mail to suburban voters, the GOTV mail budget was spent where it would have the most impact. And while overall turnout was low by historic standards, Bob McDonnell won 1,163,499 votes on Election Day – more votes than any candidate for governor in Virginia history.

Case Studies

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